Seasonal gain of at least 5% is predicted

NEW YORK — Retailers can anticipate a jolly holiday season, with seasonal sales up at least 5% from last year, accounting firm Deloitte says in a report released on Wednesday.

Deloitte’s retail and distribution practice foresees sales from November through January (seasonally adjusted and excluding motor vehicles and gasoline) topping $1.1 trillion.

Comparable retail sales between November 2017 and January 2018 totaled $1.05 trillion, representing a year-on-year increase of 5%, Deloitte says, citing Commerce Department data.

The report sees a bump of between 17% and 22% in digital sales during the period.

“The anticipated growth in holiday sales is likely because of solid disposable personal income growth, which we expect will be in the 5% to 5.4% range. That is above last year’s 4.7%,” says Daniel Bachman, Deloitte’s U.S. economic forecaster.

A healthy job market, elevated readings of consumer confidence and a “stable” personal savings rate of around 7% are also factors in Deloitte’s optimistic forecast. Risk factors identified by Deloitte include a stock market selloff and a move by policy makers at the Federal Reserve to tighten credit via an interest rate hike.

“Consumer sentiment and spending indicators provide a healthy outlook for retailers across channels, with strong expectations for store-based and online retailers,” said Rod Sides, vice chairman of Deloitte and its U.S. retail and distribution sector leader.

“We’ve seen retailers continue to advance their approaches to shipping, delivery, in-store experiences and tech-enabled commerce. That can include things like showrooms, interactive displays that replace sorting through racks with simple, easy selections or Web-based visualization that lets people get a feel for style, fit and appearance from apparel to home decor,” Sides said. “Voice-enabled shopping and shortened delivery times may also accelerate the competition around fast and easy purchasing options. The leading retailers this holiday season could be the ones who are able to strike the right balance between innovation, experience and value that best engages the consumer and stands out in a busy season.”