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Early holiday shoppers elevate sales in October

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WASHINGTON — Early holiday shopping helped boost retail sales in October, according to the National Retail Federation (NRF), which sees the outcome as a positive omen for the rest of the season.

“Retail sales data for October reflects the enduring strength of consumers’ finances and willingness to spend as the holiday season gets under way,” NRF president and chief executive officer Matthew Shay said. “The robust balance sheets of American households are being met by retailer preparation and hard work to provide products that consumers want at competitive prices. Despite significant challenges including supply chain issues, labor shortages, rising inflation and OSHA’s impending employer vaccine mandate, retailers are continuing to safely serve consumers online and in stores. Today’s numbers show that consumers are getting a jump on their holiday shopping. We continue to urge consumers to shop early and shop safely, and we fully expect this holiday season to be one for the record books.”

The Census Bureau earlier this month said overall retail sales in October were up 1.7% seasonally adjusted from September and up 16.3% year over year. That compares with increases of 0.8% month over month and 14.3% year over year in September.

NRF’s calculation of retail sales — which excludes automobile dealers, gasoline stations and restaurants to focus on core retail — showed October was up 1.7% seasonally adjusted from September and up 10.8% unadjusted year over year. That compared with increases of 0.4% month over month and 10.9% year over year in September. NRF’s numbers were up 11.3% unadjusted year over year on a three-month moving average.

“October’s numbers highlight the retail industry’s ongoing hardiness now that we’re in the fourth quarter,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said. “Consumers remain in high gear moving into the last months of the year. While it’s difficult to parse out exact amounts, the figures reflect the combined effects of Halloween and early holiday shopping. Even though consumers may have begun shopping early to avoid inventory shortages, November and December are still when they do most of their holiday shopping, so much remains ahead of us. Concerns about high prices are weighing on consumer sentiment, but that has not held back spending. As it has for more than a year and a half, COVID-19 remains a significant factor should there be an increase in coronavirus infections that could cause a pullback in spending.”

October’s results come as NRF is forecasting another record-setting holiday season, with sales for the period from November 1 through December 31 projected to grow between 8.5% and 10.5% compared to 2020.


ECRM_06-01-22


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