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Global consumer confidence sees record decline

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NEW YORK – Global consumer confidence was measured at 92 in the second quarter, down from 106 for the first three months of 2020, the Conference Board reported.

That’s a record decline from a near-historic high in the first quarter, and was driven by deteriorating economic prospects amid the coronavirus pandemic, according to The Conference Board Global Consumer Confidence Survey, released Wednesday.

A confidence reading below 100 is taken as negative. The second-quarter score of 92 suggests global consumers were slightly more pessimistic than optimistic, according to the survey’s authors, who noted that the survey’s previous negative score was in 2016.

The Conference Board conducts the survey in collaboration with Nielsen. The 14-point swing between the first quarter and the second is twice as deep as the biggest swing during the Great Recession that followed the global financial crisis that began in 2007.

“Early signs of economic rebound in several markets do not necessarily portend a quick recovery in consumer confidence in the coming months,” Bart van Ark, The Conference Board’s chief economist, said in a July 15 statement. “Countries vary in their approaches to containing the pandemic, managing the direct impacts on employment and income, and the trust populations have in their governments, which all influence consumers’ confidence that a recovery will take hold.”

Among The Conference Board’s takeaways from the latest survey:

  • As the economic crisis evolves into a demand-driven recession, consumers in most of the world’s markets are expected to remain pessimistic.
  • Worsening job prospects was the principal driver of the decline in confidence levels in mature economies such as the United States, Canada, Germany, France and the United Kingdom.
  •  Globally, and especially in emerging markets such as Russia and Brazil, a deteriorating jobs outlook combined with rising anxieties about personal finances to erode confidence.
  • In markets such as Mexico, Singapore, Spain and Italy, a pandemic-induced domino effect of job losses due to business closures and the corresponding consumer belt-tightening played out more fully than in other parts of the world.
  • Consumers sheltering in place spent more on essential products and services in the second quarter and less on discretionary goods and services.
  • Consumers also saved and invested more in the three months to June 30.
  • Consumers did slow down on some efforts to economize, however, especially on essentials: Attempts to save on gas and electricity, switch to cheaper grocery brands, and cut down on telephone expenses all declined from the previous quarter.

“Looking forward, more consumers than before plan to limit spending on annual vacations, rein in short trips, and spend less on out-of-home entertainment in the long term,” said Denise Dahlhoff, senior researcher for consumer research at The Conference Board. “These plans to decrease spending on experiential categories may reflect both lingering social distancing rules as well as health and financial concerns.”

The second-quarter report found that consumer confidence was more resilient in markets where authorities have earned their citizens’ trust. In South Korea and Taiwan, for instance, the rapid and effective rollout of preventative measures, coupled with reliable national health care systems and targeted social safety nets that allow workers to stay home without constraining their personal finances and spending, enhanced government trustworthiness and cushioned the fall in consumer confidence. In Sweden, however, the relatively rapid increase in deaths and rise in unemployment in recent months caused consumer confidence to weaken substantially.

“Without enhanced public trust in government to mitigate the risk of second-wave outbreaks, consumer confidence will remain depressed over the coming months,” added Elizabeth Crofoot, senior economist at The Conference Board. “Consumers will stay cautious about pursuing out-of-home activities, while continuing to feel insecure about their job prospects and personal finances.”


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