NEW YORK — This year’s holiday season should be a happy one for retailers, with a number of forecasts pointing to strong sales gains.

Deloitte’s annual holiday retail forecast found that retail sales during the November to January period are likely to increase between 7% and 9%, totaling $1.28 trillion to $1.3 trillion. Deloitte also forecasts that e-commerce sales will grow by 11% to 15%, year over year, during the 2021-2022 holiday season. This will likely result in e-commerce holiday sales reaching between $210 billion and $218 billion this season.

A MasterCard SpendingPulse report was similarly upbeat, forecasting that total retail sales for the period from November 1 through December 24 will increase 7.4% compared to 2020 and 11.1% versus 2019.

And for retailers concerned that these forecasts do not reflect declining consumer confidence caused by inflation worries and frustration that the COVID-19 pandemic remains a threat, National Retail Federation chief economist Jack Kleinhenz argues that consumers’ actions speak louder than their words.

“With consumer spending accounting for roughly two-thirds of U.S. gross domestic product, all eyes are closely watching shoppers’ ability to drive the economy,” Kleinhenz said. “If consumer finances are any indication, there’s reason to be optimistic: Households remain in good shape, with consumers in the aggregate actually underspending relative to current income. Even though enhanced unemployment benefits have expired and are no longer providing a boost to personal income, the loss is easily offset by the savings stockpiled since the coronavirus pandemic began.”

Kleinhenz’s remarks came in the October issue of NRF’s Monthly Economic Review, which acknowledged that COVID-19 has returned as a “major impediment” to consumer confidence because of the Delta variant. In mid-September, the Federal Reserve lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth for the year to 5.9% from 7%, and the agency expects unemployment to end the year at 4.8% rather than 4.4%. Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index was up 5.2% year over year in August, fueled by consumer demand and supply chain disruptions, and a Fed survey found consumers expect an equal amount of growth over the next 12 months. Amid those numbers, the University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 71 in September, far below its pandemic high of 88.3 in April and the lowest confidence level since the beginning of the pandemic.

Despite all that, August retail sales as calculated by NRF rose sharply, up 2.3% month over month and 12% year over year. That brought the first eight months of the year to a 15% year-over-year gain and on track to meet NRF’s forecast of between 10.5% and 13.5% growth for the full year.

“That strong momentum shows there’s a big disconnect between consumer confidence and consumer spending at the moment and that the downdraft in confidence may well be a false scent,” Kleinhenz said. “There’s a saying that you should never underestimate the American consumer — and its corollary is that you should watch what consumers do, not what they say.”

This year’s holiday shopping will likely proceed in fits and starts, though, according to a forecast by the NPD Group.

“Watch for a very early and strong start, followed by more pronounced lulls and a late surge,” Marshal Cohen, retail chief industry advisor for NPD, predicted.