NEW YORK — Online shopping and more meals eaten at home are two food retailing trends that emerged during the pandemic and are likely to stick around in the future.

“Online grocery shopping took off and we saw six years worth of growth take place in about six weeks,” FMI president and chief executive officer Leslie Sarasin said during the recent FMI Midsummer Strategic Executive Exchange. “And after this initial doubling and, in some cases, tripling of online grocery shopping, things have cooled a bit. But not much.”

Sarasin noted that before COVID-19 about half of consumers did at least some grocery shopping online. Now two-thirds of them do. And there has also been a dramatic increase, across all age groups, in the number of people who report that they frequently shop online. Not surprisingly, that trend is even more pronounced among younger consumers.

Albertsons Cos. president and CEO Vivek Sankaran, also speaking at FMI’s virtual conference, said that he doesn’t expect to see the online grocery shopping trend reverse.

“The desire to shop, and the convenience of having something delivered at home or put in the trunk of your car, is incredible,” Sankaran said. “And I think consumers never give convenience back. So that trend will only continue.”

The online trend has also pushed changes in where con-
sumers buy their groceries, Sarasin pointed out. Supermarkets have long been the preferred channel for food purchases, but their share has slipped over the years as other retailers, including supercenters and warehouse clubs, have made inroads. But in 2019 supermarkets were identified as the primary grocery shopping channel by 49% of consumers. Mass retailers (discount stores and supercenters) were picked as the primary food store by 24% of shoppers, followed by clubs (5%) and online (2%).

The picture looks very different now. According to FMI, in 2021 supermarkets are seen as the primary store of 39% of consumers, while mass stores are the pick of 33%. Warehouse clubs serve that role for 8% of consumers, and online does for 6%.

Another competitive arena for food retailers of all types is the battle for share of wallet with restaurants. During the pandemic, consumers dramatically shifted their food spending, dining out significantly less and doing more cooking and eating at home.

Food retailers saw their share of total consumer food spending jump from about 50% to 70% in March 2020. That share is now declining as restaurants reopen, but Sarasin said retailers are still capturing about 12% more food spending now than they did before the pandemic. She is optimistic that they can keep some of those gains if they up their game.

“Many consumers have learned during the pandemic that home-prepared meals are not only healthier but more economical, and they can even be quicker,” Sarasin said. “Retailers have a chance to deepen that experience, but they should be seeking ways to amplify convenience, nutrition and ease to help this trend of in-home dining stick. Retailers will need to ramp up their takeout capacity at their on-premise dining facilities, beef up their commitment to ready-to-eat and make their deli options and meal kits shine.”

Sankaran is less optimistic that the cooking-at-home trend will stick over the long term. But food retailers are in a position to benefit if office workers shift to working from home a few days a week, which would mean more breakfasts or lunches at home.

“One more day at home, two more days at home — that’s a meaningful difference in the food and beverage business.”