WASHINGTON – July retail sales were up 0.4% seasonally adjusted from June and increased 4.9% unadjusted year-over-year, giving the industry a solid kickoff for the third quarter as consumers continued to spend despite concerns about the growing trade war, the National Retail Federation reported today. The numbers exclude automobiles, gasoline stations and restaurants.

“Today’s numbers mirror the economy, which is in very good shape,” NRF chief economist Jack Kleinhenz said, citing consumer confidence, a strengthening labor market and more after-tax dollars in household wallets thanks to tax reform. “Consumer fundamentals remain healthy and continue to provide wherewithal for consumers to drive domestic economic growth.”

Kleinhenz did sound a cautionary note about tariffs.

“Consumer spending is the backbone of the current economic expansion but the fly in the ointment is uncertainty regarding tariffs,” he said. “If they escalate, they will no doubt weigh on confidence and household spending.”

The three-month moving average was up 5% over the same period a year ago. The numbers come two days after NRF revised its annual forecast, saying 2018 retail sales are now expected to grow at least 4.5% over 2017 rather than the 3.8% to 4.4% predicted earlier this year.

The July retail sales results build on improvement seen in June, which was down 0.1% monthly from May but up 3.9% year-over-year.

NRF’s numbers are based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau, which said overall July sales – including automobiles, gasoline and restaurants – were up 0.5% seasonally adjusted from June and up 6.4% year-over-year.

Specifics from key retail sectors during July include:

• Online and other non-store sales were up 11.3%year-over-year and up 0.8% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Health and personal care stores were up 6.2% year-over-year but down 0.4% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Electronics and appliance stores were up 4.2% year-over-year and up 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• Grocery and beverage stores were up 3.6% year-over-year and up 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.
• General merchandise stores were up 1.8% year-over-year and up 0.7% month-over-month seasonally adjusted.