PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. — The NPD Group expects 2022 and 2023 will see 6% and 3% year over year revenue declines, respectively, but remain above 2019 industry sales as a result of higher average selling prices (ASPs). Looking forward to the 2022 holiday season (Q4), consumer technology industry revenue is expected to be down vs. 2021, but 11% higher than 2019.

NPD, which recently merged with Information Resources Inc. (IRI), to create a leading global technology, analytics and data provider,  announced the latest findings from its Future of Technology forecast.

“For the last two years consumers have relied on technology products to make their lives more comfortable and convenient while many worked, learned, and entertained mostly from home,” said Paul Gagnon, vice president, industry advisor for NPD. “Rather than waiting for promotions, or in some cases specific products, they bought what was available when they needed it. But as consumers return to more ‘normal’ behaviors and schedules we are seeing a shift back to pre-pandemic purchase patterns and believe consumers will once again be seeking out holiday deals this Q4.”

While tremendous sales in 2020 and 2021 pulled demand forward in a number of categories and will contribute to near-term declines for sales of computers, bright spots for holiday 2022 will include TVs, tablets, true wireless headphones, and home automation products. TV unit sales are expected to return to growth in Q4 with year over year unit sales up 9% as prices fall and deeper promotions are expected. Declining ASPs will also fuel unit growth in tablets, up 11%, and true wireless headphones, up 3%.

“Home automation products will see continued growth, with holiday unit sales expected to be up 5% year over year, as standards like Matter rollout making products more compatible and easier to set-up, encouraging adoption,” said Ben Arnold, executive director and technology industry analyst for NPD. “Smart doorbells and item trackers will be areas of growth in Q4, as consumers leverage holiday promotions as a reason to enter the category.”

Future of Technology forecasts and insights are based on forecasted sales of technology products captured in The NPD Group’s Retail Tracking Service point-of-sale data.