WASHINGTON — A favorable consumer outlook over the next few months might be enough to keep the U.S. economy from tipping into a recession in 2022, according to National Retail Federation (NRF) chief economist Jack Kleinhenz.

“The economy is moving away from extremely strong growth toward moderate growth, but increased income from employment gains, rising wages and more hours worked is expected to support household spending,” Kleinhenz wrote in NRF’s July Economic Review.

Retail sales as calculated by NRF increased 7.3% in the year’s first five months compared to 2021.

“I am not betting on an official recession in the near term,” Kleinhenz said, “but the most recent research pegs the risk over the next year as about one in three, and it will be touch and go in 2023.”