The fourth quarter of the calendar year, always a pivotal time for retailers, is in 2020 shaping up as a make-or-break period. Rocked by the COVID-19 pandemic and subsequent measures to limit the virus’ spread, many retailers have seen business fundamentals, already shaken by e-commerce and changing consumer behavior, further undermined.

A new report by BDO, a business services firm, shows that retail bankruptcies and store closures are accelerating, with 18 major retailers — including Neiman Marcus, J.C. Penney and GNC — filing for Chapter 11 in the first six months of the year; from the beginning of July through mid-August, 11 more took that step. That puts the industry on pace to equal or eclipse the record 48 retail bankruptcies that followed the great recession of 2008. The findings, along with the mounting toll of store closures among mom-and-pop stores and the big market share gains racked up by online merchants during the pandemic, portend realignment in the retail sector.

Against that backdrop, mass market retailers must prepare for both the holiday selling season and a highly uncertain run-up to it. The specter of COVID-19 — the threat of which was again made manifest when President Trump announced on Twitter that he and the first lady tested positive for the virus — looms over retailers, suppliers and consumers. Both Walmart and Target noted the unique conditions that currently pertain while revealing plans for the next three months, and stressed their commitment to offering a safe shopping environment.

Safety became an imperative for retailers when the novel coronavirus took hold in the U.S. seven months ago. For sellers of essential merchandise, including supermarket, drug and discount chains, which were allowed to stay open during lockdowns, a second obligation is staying in stock. With ominous signs of a possible second wave of COVID-19 on the horizon, merchants must ensure they have adequate supplies of food, drugs and other basic goods in the event the situation returns to what it was a few months ago. Consumers, for the most part, accepted supply chain disruptions in the spring; they probably won’t a second time.

If that weren’t enough, traditional mass market retailers have to contend with Amazon and the momentum the company and other online retailers have gained during the pandemic. Amazon Prime Day is set for October 13 and October 14. It’s no coincidence that Target and other chains are responding with concurrent events of their own.

For retail industry observers, the next three months should prove interesting.